The Road to the COP 28
2022 was arguably food and agriculture’s breakout year on the climate scene, riding on the…
Every 6 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change releases a three part assessment report on climate change. The second part of the fifth of these reports was released on March 31st, and its focus is on the effect of climate change on ecosystems, economy and human society in general. Chapter 7, which the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) has condensed into a brief analysis paper, is focused on impacts on food and agriculture.
The report suggests unfortunately that technology may not be able to keep up, with a great hit to tropical agriculture. “Simulations for the 2040s and 2050s that include on-farm adaptations – changes in planting date, fertilizer, irrigation, cultivar or other agronomic practices – give a yield benefit of 14% for temperate crops, but no discernible benefit for tropical crops,” summarizes CCAFS.
The report can be found here. The Economist’s coverage of the report can be found here.
The synthesis, also published independently as A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation, by Andy Challinor, James Watson, David Lobell, Mark Howden, Daniel Smith and Netra Chhetri, distills the consensus among modellers on future yields of the major food security crops – rice, wheat and maize – that provide half the food we consume.